2/5/2025

 2/5/2025

The original forecasting model based on the week was adjusted, and the Holt-Winters method and the Multiple Decomposition model were all changed to forecast sales on a "day" basis. This adjustment enables the model to more carefully capture the immediate impact of holidays, promotions and daily fluctuations on sales trends, thereby improving the sensitivity and accuracy of the forecast. After that, we had another in-depth discussion with Supply Chain Executive, and learned that the Holt-Winters method contains two different forms of seasonal processing: additive and multiplicative.

Based on the understanding of the principles and applicable scenarios of both, the additive and multiplicative Holt-Winters models were used to conduct forecasting experiments on the same data, and the forecast results were compared and analyzed with the Multiple Decomposition to evaluate the performance differences of each method under different data modes.